Trump’s Influence Tested in Texas GOP Race

Capitol building with dome and Texas flag displayed

Texas GOP voters face a pivotal runoff battle between establishment Senator John Cornyn and MAGA champion Ken Paxton, testing President Trump’s influence in the nation’s reddest state.

Story Snapshot

CBS News projects Cornyn-Paxton runoff in Texas U.S. Senate Republican primary after razor-thin polls on March 2, 2026.
Record $70 million spending by Cornyn allies marks the most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history, fueling bitter personal attacks.
Paxton, leading conservative fights on immigration and family values, claims early voting analytics show outright win potential.
Runoff set for May 26 if no candidate exceeds 50%, prolonging infighting amid energized Democrats eyeing a flip.
Trump endorsement looms large for 37% undecided voters in dead-heat race.

Primary Eve Projection Signals Dead Heat

CBS News projected on March 2, 2026, a runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary. Razor-thin polls on primary eve, with Election Day March 3, set the stage for the top two to advance to May 26. Paxton expressed confidence in avoiding the runoff, citing early voting analytics despite a multi-candidate field. Analysts anticipated the outcome regardless, highlighting the high-stakes contest in Texas’ “red wall.”

Intra-Party Tensions Fuel Record Spending War

The 2026 primary stems from post-2024 GOP fractures between establishment figures and the MAGA wing. Cornyn, seeking a fifth term, drew fire for bipartisan moves like the post-Uvalde gun safety bill and early skepticism on Trump’s 2024 victory. Paxton launched his bid in April 2025, blasting Cornyn as insufficiently conservative. Cornyn allies responded with nearly $70 million in ads by early 2026, attacking Paxton’s ethics scandals, divorce, and alleged affair. This spending made it the costliest Senate primary ever.

Key Players and Bitter Rivalries Emerge

Cornyn positions himself as a “Texas workhorse” safeguarding GOP dominance, backed by the Senate Leadership Fund and establishment donors. Paxton campaigns as an anti-establishment fighter, championing legal battles against abortion mandates, religious restrictions, and LGBTQ+ overreach that threaten family values. Rep. Wesley Hunt trails far behind. Both candidates court President Trump’s endorsement, critical for 37% undecided voters per August 2025 Emerson polls showing Cornyn at 30% and Paxton at 29%.

Bitterness defines the race, with Paxton labeling Cornyn “desperate” and Cornyn warning of Paxton’s “self-inflicted baggage” cracking Texas’ Republican hold unbroken since 1994. National Republicans fear Paxton’s scandals could inflate general election costs to $200 million against Democrat Colin Allred, though polls show both beating him.

Runoff Risks GOP Unity and National Control

A May 26 runoff delays the nominee amid prolonged spending and infighting, energizing Democrats in this midterm cycle. Paxton holds higher favorability among GOP base voters, potentially thriving in lower-turnout contests focused on economy (30% priority) and immigration. Cornyn’s massive fundraising failed to pull ahead, echoing Emerson’s past underestimation of Texas GOP strength. Pro-Paxton voices call establishment cash “good money after bad,” urging resources elsewhere.

Texas GOP Senate primary heading to Cornyn-Paxton runoff, CBS News projects https://t.co/wRhV6ZUAB7 via @@YahooNews

— Donald Pedersen (@DonaldP28785881) March 4, 2026

The contest tests MAGA versus establishment in America’s premier red state, with implications for Senate control and 2026 midterms. Paxton’s victory could harden the GOP toward conservative priorities like border security and limited government, but risks down-ballot races if Democrats exploit divisions. Texas Republicans must rally behind the survivor to protect traditional values from leftist challenges.