Like many coastal Democratic strongholds, Massachusetts has seen thousands upon thousands of citizens flee its borders in recent years. A great number of them are fleeing to the state of Florida, where a more relaxed business, tax, and legal climate promise more liberty and a lower cost of living. In the process, Massachusetts is facing the prospect of billions of dollars in lost tax revenue, potentially putting the state in even greater danger of insolvency.
Graduate students at Boston University’s Questrom School of Business has recently released a study, which finds that net migration out of Massachusetts has increased by 1,100 percent since recent years, totaling up to a net loss of thirty-nine thousand people per year since 2013. Researchers are predicting that, by 2030, net population loss will exceed ninety-six thousand people every year. Current top destinations for the New England state’s expatriates are Florida, Maine, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Texas.
In 2021 alone, Massachusetts lost access to $4.27 billion in taxable adjusted gross income due to the out-migration, according to the study. The largest slice of this AGI—$1.77 billion, or 42 percent—went to Florida. New Hampshire siphoned off 26 percent—$1.12 billion—and Maine swept up nine percent, or $393 million.
According to researchers Linglan Xu and Yuhan Liu, all of this totals up to a potential loss of $1.92 billion in lost taxable income by 2030, which means the state will face an income shortfall of $961 million in income taxes alone.
Meantime, more conservative states such as Texas, South Carolina, and Florida are growing three times faster than the average of all states. They are not just receiving a massive influx of new citizens and tax revenues, they will also gain congressional seats and electoral votes.
Neither Florida nor Texas has a state income tax.
Migration patterns, the reports note, are a kind of vote, where citizens render their verdict on how well their states meet their needs.
