Vice President Kamala Harris is all set to pick her running mate for the 2024 presidential race – and by the time you’re reading this, she may have already announced that Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has won the veepstakes. He’s a popular governor, he’s a strong speaker, he canceled a ton of speaking events in the days leading up to Harris’ decision…and he’s also the governor of a swing state the could decide the election.
After securing enough delegates to secure the Democratic nomination and officially become the party’s nominee for president, the DNC and their newly-crowned candidate quickly pivoted to the pressing matter of who will be her running mate.
With barely two weeks of campaigning under her belt, Harris was widely understood to be considering five candidates – all of them male. Reports revealed how Shapiro was at the top of her list, but that among the other possible candidates with Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, U.S. Transportation Secretary (and former presidential contender) Pete Buttigieg, and U.S. Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona.
All men have their strengths…well, maybe not Buttigieg. But they certainly all have appealing qualities, and Shapiro has been considered the top candidate for weeks. But the party isn’t united behind him.
Fetterman’s Not So Keen
Speaking to Politico over the weekend, close aides of Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman revealed how their boss is concerned that Harris might move ahead with the plans. Sources close to the controversial Democratic legislator said that Fetterman believes that Shapiro is far too interested in his own success, and wouldn’t be the kind of champion for Pennsylvania – or the country – that the American people need.
Politico revealed how Fetterman’s advisers reached out to Harris’ team, stressing that Shapiro is “excessively focused on his own ambition.”
According to the report, Fetterman and Shapiro have a long-standing rivalry in the state, having both served on the Pennsylvania Board of Pardons. Politico described how, during his time there, Fetterman attempted to completely reform the institution and use his influence as an opportunity to “provide second chances to some convicts.” Shapiro, however, thought differently. Rather than using his power to help people change their lives, Fetterman believed that he preferred punishment, with his aides arguing that he believed the commutations process “was not the place for ‘structural’ changes.”
What can we take from that? Well, assuming it’s true – and Fetterman himself didn’t say this, remember – then it means that Fetterman is concerned that Shapiro isn’t progressive enough on issues like crime. That could spell trouble for the Democrats if Harris goes ahead and picks him, but it wouldn’t hurt the Democratic ticket in picking up Republican voters who might otherwise be concerned about a “soft on crime” president.
Shapiro Could Ensure A Democratic Win In Pennsylvania
Some experts believe that if Shapiro is the candidate, the Democrats will definitely win Pennsylvania in November. Polling data from Susquehanna Polling & Research shows that Shapiro’s 55%+ approval rating in the state could win over enough voters in the state, even against pro-manufacturing, pro-worker candidate Donald Trump. Why? Well, because his approval rating is more than double his 26% disapproval rating.
Trump is simultaneously the most popular and least popular candidate in the country, but Shapiro is among the most popular governors – at least on the Democratic side. There’s still the lingering question of how well Shapiro will do nationally and in other swing states, but at least for Pennsylvania, he’s a good bet for the Democrats.
Is It All Donald Trump’s Fault?
There’s a reason Shapiro is a likely pick for Harris…and former Republican Governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie, argued over the weekend that Donald Trump himself is that reason.
Speaking on ABC News’ “This Week,” Christie argued that it was former President Trump’s decision to endorse Shapiro’s 2022 Republican opponent that made him such a popular politician. Specifically, Christie was talking about Doug Mastriano, a hardcore, pro-life, anti-immigration, populist conservative who lost the Pennsylvania gubernatorial election. Mastriano, while popular with Trump’s base, proved to be a controversial candidate who was unable to successfully win over moderates and independents in the state.
““I don’t think this is a hard choice. He’s a very talented politician. He’s extraordinarily popular, 65 percent job approval in a state she needs to win. This is really important. And I’ll tell you this … If she picks Shapiro on Tuesday, Donald Trump created Josh Shapiro,” Christie told ABC, adding that Trump shouldn’t have endorsed “the weakest Republican candidate in the field.”
Polling data from the weeks before the gubernatorial election showed Shapiro with a 13-point lead against Mastriano – so people knew he was going to win. The same Marist poll also found that while Shapiro was viewed favorably by a plurality of voters, Mastriano had a strongly unfavorable ranking.
Had Trump endorsed a more popular candidate, Christie suggested, then Shapiro might not have been in play for the 2024 presidential election. Worse, Christie thinks that Shapiro could hand Harris a victory based on his record of building coalitions between Republicans and Democrats.
Christie described how Shapiro built a coalition in the last election, and that now he can do it on a national scale.
“So now he’s seen as a coalition builder because he did it, but the only reason he could do it is because Trump made another ridiculously stupid endorsement by endorsing Mastriano, who was a flawed, weak, bad candidate. If Josh Shapiro winds up winning … and Trump loses Pennsylvania, he can go back to his decision in 2022 as planting the seeds for that loss,” Christie said.
The data now shows that Pennsylvania could be the most important state in this year’s election. On August 2, Nate Silver revealed how the state has a 35% chance of tipping the election this time around, with Harris’ chance of winning the election nationally if she wins Pennsylvania sitting at 91%. Trump has a 96.1% chance of winning the national election if he wins Pennsylvania instead. The state that comes the closest is Wisconsin, with a 14% chance of tipping the election.
Shapiro, then, might be just what Harris needs. What do you think?
